Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta will fall into one of several discrete ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific date and station, with the contract resolving to whichever temperature bracket captures the actual daily high. Polymarket currently prices all YES outcomes at zero, suggesting traders see no meaningful probability mass in any single range—a reflection of the event's distance from the present and the inherent uncertainty in long-range weather forecasting.

Atlanta's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 85°F and 92°F, though extremes occasionally push toward 95°F or beyond. The National Weather Service records from recent July 13ths show variation: in 2023, the high was 89°F; in 2022, 87°F. This historical spread illustrates why the market currently shows no consensus. The settlement window closes at midday on the event date itself, meaning traders cannot condition on actual forecasts issued in the days immediately preceding 13 July 2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal climate patterns and any emerging signals about summer 2026 conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlooks, published months in advance, may shift expectations around whether the Southeast experiences an unusually hot or mild summer. Additionally, the specific mechanics of Hartsfield-Jackson's weather station—its location near runways and urban heat effects—can produce readings slightly elevated above surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating historical comparables.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Atlanta on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.