Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Beijing airport-temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively saying there is no chance the highest reading in the Weather Underground daily observations table for 10 August 2026 lands in the resolved Celsius band. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through USDC collateral on Polygon and settled through conditional tokens, so the practical question is not whether Beijing is hot in general, but whether the specific station observation on the day hits the relevant range. Weather Underground’s Beijing Capital International Airport history page is already showing an early reading of **77°F** at midnight, which is about **25°C**, but the market resolves off the day’s highest observation, not the summary box[2].

The historical frame is straightforward: Beijing in August is normally a hot month, with average highs around **30–31°C** and published August records showing occasional tops in the low to mid-30s Celsius[1][5][17][19]. That matters because a 0% market is not a statement that the event is impossible; it often reflects that the currently selected band is already viewed as inconsistent with the likely temperature path or that traders expect the final maximum to settle outside the range. Comparable August histories from Beijing repeatedly show daytime highs near **31–33°C**, including recent daily maxima of **31°C on 9 August 2026** and **32°C on 9 August 2025**, which is the sort of backdrop traders use when gauging whether the contract is mispriced[10][16][17].

For catalysts, the key watch item is the intraday weather progression at **Beijing Capital International Airport Station** as logged in Weather Underground’s daily observations, since late-afternoon warmth can still shift the result even after a cool start[2]. Traders should also watch any forecast updates from major weather services, because Beijing’s August weather is sensitive to cloud cover, rain, and humidity, which can cap the day’s peak temperature[1][5][13]. In practice, the market’s final outcome depends on the exact observation table entries, so the last few hourly updates matter more than broad monthly averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.