Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or minimal trading activity establishing a baseline. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, creating a hard deadline for the highest reading recorded during that calendar day in Beijing.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 29–33°C during this period. The city's 30-year average for late August sits near 31°C, though extreme heat events have pushed temperatures above 38°C in recent years—notably during the 2022 heatwave when readings exceeded 40°C. The specificity of using airport station data matters considerably; airport microclimates can differ from urban centres by several degrees depending on surface conditions and wind patterns. Traders should examine 2024 and 2025 August records from the same Weather Underground station to calibrate expectations around typical variance and outlier frequency.

China's meteorological forecasting capacity improves substantially 10–14 days ahead of target dates, meaning meaningful catalyst windows open around early-to-mid August 2026. Broader atmospheric patterns—including monsoon positioning, Tibetan high-pressure systems, and any tropical cyclone activity affecting northern China—will shape conditions. The distinction between Daily Observations and Day High & Low summaries has resolved previous weather markets differently; traders should verify which specific data point Weather Underground prioritises during the settlement window, as discrepancies between measurement intervals could shift outcomes across adjacent temperature bands.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.