Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on 4 August at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively trading as if an outcome in the listed settlement range is very unlikely. Because this market resolves to the day’s peak reading from Wunderground’s airport station page, the practical question for holders is whether the live airport maximum can still climb enough before the settlement window closes to move out of the currently implied no-hit view.

The historical frame is straightforward: Beijing in August is usually hot, humid and rain-affected, with typical daytime highs clustering around 30–31°C, while forecasts for early August 2026 have pointed to highs in the low-to-mid 30s rather than extreme heat. One forecast source shows 4 August around 36°C with rain, while another places the day near 86°F, which is roughly 30°C, illustrating that the likely settlement band is centred well below any very high outlier and that rainfall can cap the top temperature[3][4][2]. On Polymarket, where positions settle in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, that means traders are really expressing a view on the airport’s final observed maximum, not the citywide feel or a generic daily forecast.

The main catalysts are the day’s intraday weather evolution, especially whether afternoon convection or thunderstorms arrive early enough to suppress the peak, and whether sunshine holds long enough for a late-morning or early-afternoon high to be set before cloud cover increases. The market’s own rules also matter: revisions can count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so traders watch the Wunderground station feed closely rather than relying only on model forecasts[14]. Current bulletin-style forecasts and observation pages show warm, humid conditions with rain chances still present, which keeps the focus on timing rather than headline temperature alone[1][13].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.