Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this Polymarket contract, which currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0% despite the settlement window closing at noon UTC. On-chain, traders are using USDC on Polygon to buy conditional tokens for specific Celsius ranges, with 30°C emerging as the frontrunner at 25% probability and 29°C close behind at 21% [1]. The market’s structure ties resolution directly to Wunderground’s recorded peak for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, ensuring an objective, data-driven outcome.

Historical July temperatures in Beijing frequently exceed 30°C, with daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F) and rarely dipping below 26°C (78°F) [3]. In 2023, the month peaked at 40°C, and China recorded its hottest July in recent history in 2024, with temperatures above 40°C hitting regularly from 11 July onward [2][8]. This context makes the current 0% “YES” probability appear misaligned with typical seasonal patterns, suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of extreme heat.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates for the ZBAA station, as heatwave announcements or sudden rainfall could shift outcomes [8]. The Beijing Meteorological Bureau notes that July highs commonly land between 30°C and 36°C, with 32°C and 33°C being frequent [10]. Any official heatwave warnings issued before settlement will act as immediate catalysts, potentially driving rapid token price movements on the Polygon network.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.