Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Beijing's highest temperature will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data via Wunderground. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% implied probability on Polygon, suggesting either a technical settlement delay or minimal liquidity in USDC-denominated conditional tokens. This disconnect between zero pricing and inevitable resolution—some temperature will occur—creates a structural arbitrage opportunity for traders willing to hold positions through the settlement window.

Beijing's July temperatures cluster reliably between 25–35°C, with extreme heat events pushing toward 40°C occurring roughly once per decade. The city recorded 41.1°C in June 2022 during an exceptional heatwave, though July peaks have historically remained below 40°C in most years since records began in 1951. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either market formation lag or uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve, rather than genuine doubt that measurable heat will occur.

Climate patterns entering summer 2026 will depend on established monsoon dynamics and any anomalous pressure systems developing across East Asia in late July. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly forecasts typically 10–14 days ahead, which traders should monitor for seasonal outlook updates. Historical volatility in Beijing's July temperatures—ranging from 29°C to 40°C across different years—means the eventual resolution band remains genuinely uncertain despite the calendar certainty of the event itself.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.