Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, so the market is effectively assuming Beijing Capital International Airport will not print a top temperature anywhere in the relevant winning range on 31 July. That matters because the payoff is tied to the *single highest reading* logged at the airport station and resolved from Wunderground, not to a citywide average or a forecast headline; traders are holding conditional tokens against a specific temperature band, with settlement determined by the day’s maximum at the source station.

The historical frame still points to meaningful heat risk, even if the live market is discounting it heavily. July is Beijing’s hottest month, with typical highs around 31°C and frequent spikes well above that, while the city’s extreme records are materially higher: 41.9°C in modern records, and a 41.1°C reading at a Beijing observatory during a recent hot spell reported by CBS News. Weather-history pages also show late-July highs in the mid-30s Celsius at Beijing, which is enough to keep upper temperature buckets in play whenever the forecast trend turns hotter than average.

A trader watching this contract should focus on the same-day forecast for Beijing Capital International Airport, any heat advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities, and whether cloud, rain, or a passing frontal system caps the afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The key dependency is the airport station itself: a hotter downtown reading does not matter if ZBAA stays lower, and the market will only resolve from the Wunderground daily history page for that station.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.