Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 4 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, resolving to a specific degree range in Celsius. Today, Polymarket prices the contract with a 0% implied probability for a "YES" outcome on the lowest range, while the market heavily favours 33°C at 53% and 34°C at 36%, with 35°C holding a 25% chance[1]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon utilise USDC and conditional tokens, meaning liquidity is thin but the pricing reflects a strong consensus that temperatures will exceed 31°C, despite the current crowd-implied probability for the lowest bracket sitting at zero.

Historical data frames this probability against Beijing’s typical July heat, where daily highs average around 88°F (31°C) and rarely dip below 78°F (26°C) or exceed 96°F (36°C)[3]. Recent extremes show the city has recorded temperatures up to 42.1°C in 2010 and 41.9°C in 1999, with 2023 seeing peaks of 40°C during intense humidity[5][7][9]. These comparable cases suggest that a 33°C or 34°C peak is statistically probable, aligning with the market’s current frontrunner, while the 0% probability for the lowest range correctly dismisses the likelihood of a cold anomaly in mid-summer.

Traders should monitor the upcoming weather models and any official heatwave announcements from Chinese meteorological authorities, as these serve as the primary catalysts for price shifts before resolution. Recent news from Reuters highlighted Beijing bracing for blistering heatwaves returning in June 2023, with temperatures soaring above 41°C, indicating that seasonal patterns can drive sudden spikes in peak heat[4]. The settlement source, Wunderground, will provide the definitive hourly record, so any divergence between forecasted models and real-time station data at ZBAA will be the critical dependency for USDC position adjustments on the conditional tokens market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.