Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite historical data showing June highs in Beijing typically exceed 30°C. This near-zero probability is stark when compared to comparable cases: June 2023 saw Beijing hit 41.1°C, shattering the June record and marking the hottest day in over 60 years[3][8]. Historical averages for June in Beijing range from 84°F to 87°F (29°C–31°C), rarely dropping below 73°F (23°C) or exceeding 96°F (36°C)[1][2].

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s daily heatwave forecasts and any official announcements regarding cold air intrusions, which are the primary catalysts for temperature drops below 30°C. Recent reporting confirms that heatwaves returning to northern China in late June can push temperatures above 41°C, as seen during the fourth and strongest heatwave from 21–30 June 2023[6]. The on-chain mechanics involve USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens settle based on Wunderground’s verified daily high for the airport station. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-28T12:00:00Z, the market’s current pricing ignores the strong historical precedent of blistering heat in late June, suggesting a potential misalignment between crowd sentiment and meteorological reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.