Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s temperature market is priced at **0% YES**, which means Polymarket is currently treating a high reading in the top settlement band as effectively off the table. The contract pays out through **USDC** on **Polygon** via conditional tokens, so the practical question for users is whether the highest temperature at **Gimhae Intl Airport Station** on 1 August lands in the market’s targeted Celsius range before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, using Wunderground’s daily history page as the reference source.

That scepticism sits against the broader climate pattern: August is Busan’s hottest month on average, with typical highs around the mid-30s Celsius in some forecasts, but also persistent humidity and rainfall that can cap daytime extremes. Climate references for Busan put August highs around 29–31°C and record warm days much higher, including a city record of 38.8°C reported in late July 2026, showing that exceptional heat is possible even if it is not the norm.[1][4][5][17][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are the actual hourly readings at the airport station through the day, plus any late-morning surge in heat before the UTC settlement cut-off. A forecast track that favours 30°C-plus daytime highs, combined with clear skies and weak rain, would support the upper bins; cloud cover or showers would pull the realised maximum lower. In market terms, the key dependency is not a citywide headline temperature but the specific station maximum published on Wunderground, which is the figure that will determine the token outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.