Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **34°C** at **41%** in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling against the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station during the market window. The contract is tightly linked to the day’s observed maximum rather than a general city forecast, so traders are really weighing the chance of a late-afternoon peak reaching the mid-30s before the Wunderground daily page closes out the datapoint set.

For context, Chengdu in August usually sits in the low 30s Celsius by day, with humidity and rain keeping temperatures sticky rather than dry. Historical August guides put typical highs around 30–32°C, while recent forecast pages for 4 August cluster around 31–32°C with patchy rain or scattered showers, which helps explain why the market leans to 34°C rather than the higher 35°C+ buckets. In other words, the current pricing implies a view that Chengdu gets warm enough for a solid afternoon max, but not quite hot enough to make the upper-30s outcomes the base case.

The main catalysts for traders are the same-day forecast updates, radar changes, and whether any convective showers arrive early enough to suppress the peak before mid-afternoon. Polymarket’s own market page notes that revisions to temperatures within the settlement window count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late-session moves can still matter if the observed maximum is not yet locked in. The practical watch-list is simple: hourly forecast shifts, thunderstorm timing, and the Wunderground station feed, because those are what can move a 34°C or 35°C trade from plausible to favoured in the final hours.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.