Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Chengdu temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is effectively saying there is no meaningful chance of the day’s high landing in the contract’s target band when the 24-hour Wunderground reading is finally posted to the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station page. Because settlement is tied to the highest temperature recorded there on 6 August 2026, holders on Polygon are really trading a USDC-settled conditional token on one specific observed airport maximum, not a general city forecast.[1]

For context, Chengdu in August is normally a hot, humid, and rain-affected environment, with long-run summer highs around 30°C and frequent cloud or showers rather than clean, all-day heat. Comparable weather guides and seasonal climatology put typical August daytime peaks in the low 30s, while Hong Kong’s city-weather bulletin for 6 August 2026 already had Chengdu forecast at 21–35°C with rain, which is consistent with a broad range that can still produce a mid-30s airport maximum if sunshine breaks through.[1][5][6][9][14] That makes the contract less about average comfort and more about whether the day’s top reading clears or misses a precise band.

A trader should watch the actual day-of evolution: morning cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and whether the airport station gets enough sun before rain suppresses the peak. Chengdu is in the rainy season, so timing matters as much as the headline forecast; short-lived clear spells can push the maximum temperature above what the average forecast implies, while persistent rain can cap it well below the upper 30s.[1][6][13] On the Polymarket side, the only thing that ultimately matters is the Wunderground history entry for the airport station, so late swings in the meteorological setup can matter more than earlier public forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.