Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is bracing for peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the city’s Shuangliu International Airport Station expected to record temperatures that could push into the high thirties. The Polymarket contract for this event currently prices the “YES” outcome at 0%, implying the crowd sees no chance of the temperature exceeding the settlement threshold, despite historical July climatology averaging 30–32°C with frequent spikes above 35°C [1]. The leading market outcome is 38°C at 34%, followed by 37°C at 28%, suggesting traders are betting on a specific high rather than a binary exceedance [1].

Historically, Chengdu’s July heat mirrors Singapore or Kuala Lumpur in intensity, with days occasionally reaching 38°C (100°F) amid fuggy conditions [2]. Record-breaking heatwaves have hit the Yangtze River region, including a 44°C spike in 2022, the highest since 1959, while Chengdu’s own hottest day hit 38.6°C in August 2022 [8][9]. These precedents frame the 0% current probability as potentially mispriced, given the region’s volatility and the mid-July window being the hottest period of the year [3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for national heatwave announcements from China’s meteorological authorities, which often precede extreme readings [1]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record, with national averages hitting 22.3°C and localized peaks up to 113°F, reinforcing the risk of outlier temperatures [5]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens allow precise positioning as the settlement window closes at 2026-07-13T12:00:00Z, with liquidity shifting as hourly data updates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.