Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s mid-July heat is already pushing toward its seasonal peak, with the city routinely recording highs above 35°C during this period. The market asks whether the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 16 July 2026 will fall into a specific range, yet the crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the current YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to land outside that bracket.

Historically, Chengdu Shuangliu has seen July maxima between 33°C and 38°C, with 2022 and 2023 both hitting 37°C on or near 16 July. In 2024, the peak reached 36.2°C, while 2025 recorded 35.8°C. These consistent figures frame the 0% probability as a likely mispricing if the selected range includes 35–37°C, a band that has captured the actual high in four of the last five years.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast for Sichuan, particularly any updates on the subtropical high-pressure system influencing the region. A recent report from the South China Morning Post notes that a strengthening ridge over central China is expected to persist through mid-July, increasing the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 36°C in Chengdu. On Polymarket, positions are settled in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity shifts will directly reflect new forecast data as it arrives before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.