Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 is the real-world event this contract settles, with the market currently pricing a 38°C outcome at 100% probability and all other ranges, including any below 34°C, at 0% [1]. This extreme consensus reflects the city’s typical July heat, where daytime highs routinely climb into the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, often peaking near 38°C during clear, humid spells [3]. Historical July data for Chengdu shows that temperatures below 34°C are rare in the peak of summer, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges consistent with regional climate patterns rather than an anomalous market misprice [2].

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history feed for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station (ZUUU), the official resolution source, as any cloud cover, rain, or sudden monsoon activity could shift the peak temperature below the 38°C threshold [1]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled for 20 July, the rainy season in Sichuan can introduce short-lived cooling events, and forecast updates from local meteorological services in the week leading up to the date will be critical [3]. Since settlement hinges on a single day’s maximum reading, even a brief period of precipitation or increased cloud density could invalidate the current frontrunner, making real-time weather tracking essential for position management.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.