Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s **highest temperature today** at the airport station is the event Polymarket is pricing, and the contract is still marked at **0% YES**, implying the market is not assigning any meaningful chance to a qualifying reading at the moment. On Polymarket, traders hold **USDC** positions on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the live price reflects what the crowd thinks the Wunderground-reported daily maximum at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will settle at on 23 July 2026.

A **0%** print usually appears when traders believe the observed maximum will land outside every YES band, or when liquidity is too thin to move the market meaningfully. For a weather contract like this, the relevant comparison set is not a long-run seasonal average but the airport’s own intraday distribution: whether Chengdu gets a sharp afternoon warm-up, cloud cover, or rain that caps the day’s peak. Because settlement depends on the Wunderground daily high for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, the most important reference is the local airport observation rather than citywide forecasts or neighbourhood readings.

What matters for traders today is the evolution of the **daytime forecast** and any late changes in cloud, rainfall, or convection that could alter the maximum before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**. Chinese local weather updates, airport-area forecast revisions, and any shift in the timing of showers are the immediate catalysts, because a hotter-than-expected afternoon can still move the realised high even after the morning price has settled near zero.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.