Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **0% YES** for Chengdu’s highest temperature reading on the airport station today, so the contract is effectively assuming the day will not land in the resolved Celsius band. The market settles against Wunderground’s daily high for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, and holders of the relevant conditional tokens on Polygon are paid in USDC only if that recorded maximum falls inside the specified range.

That zero price is easiest to read against Chengdu’s summer pattern rather than a single hourly snapshot. Late July in Chengdu is typically hot, humid and rain-prone, with local forecast services showing high temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius around this period and rain chances still meaningful even when the air looks clear at dawn.[1][2][3][4] For a yes/no contract tied to the day’s *maximum*, a few degrees either side of the daily peak matters far more than the morning temperature, because the settlement uses the highest observation recorded over the full day.

From a trader’s perspective, the main catalysts are the same items that can move the airport station’s maximum through the target band: a stronger-than-expected heat build-up before afternoon, cloud cover or showers suppressing the high, and any change in the official Wunderground trace as the day unfolds. Chengdu’s summer is also the school-holiday period, which tends to coincide with heavier travel and routine city activity, but for this market the decisive dependency is still the station reading itself rather than transport or event schedules.[5] The practical watchpoint is whether the forecast high remains anchored near the upper 30s, because that is what can break a near-zero implied probability back towards the contract’s payout range.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.