Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will record its highest daily temperature on 25 July 2026 at Shuangliu International Airport Station, measured in Celsius and settled against Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% implied probability across the board, a technical artefact of how Polymarket's conditional token structure initialises before meaningful liquidity arrives. Once traders deposit USDC on Polygon and begin minting positions, the probability mass will redistribute across the available brackets—likely concentrating in the 35–40°C range based on historical patterns for late July in Sichuan Province.

Chengdu's July temperatures have remained remarkably consistent over the past decade. The city's highest recorded July temperatures cluster between 37 and 40°C, with extreme heat events (41°C+) occurring roughly once every five to seven years. The 2022 heatwave pushed readings to 40.2°C, whilst more typical years see peaks in the 37–39°C band. This historical distribution should anchor trader positioning once conditional tokens begin trading; the current 0% across all brackets reflects only the absence of on-chain activity, not meteorological expectation.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks for Sichuan. La Niña or El Niño conditions in the Pacific will influence regional pressure patterns through the month. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, giving traders roughly 24 hours after local midnight to observe the final reading before Wunderground's historical archive locks the data.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.