Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **35°C** band as the front-runner at 41%, with **34°C** close behind at 36%, so the contract is already leaning towards a hot but not extreme outcome on the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport reading that matters for settlement.[3] In Polymarket terms, traders are buying and selling USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, and the position that matches the final Daily Observations entry on Weather Underground will redeem for $1 when the market resolves.[3]

That 0% crowd-implied YES looks detached from the local climate context. August is Chongqing’s hottest month on long-run averages, with typical highs around 34–35°C and a meaningful tail of much hotter days; historical climate pages also note peak August warmth can reach the high 30s or low 40s in extreme spells.[2][5][8][17] Independent forecast pages for this date have already pointed to a maximum near 34–35°C, while AccuWeather’s current day view sits around 95°F, which is about 35°C.[1][11][13] In other words, the market is not pricing a freak cold day; it is pricing whether the airport station lands in the mid-30s or slightly below.

For traders, the main catalysts are the successive weather updates that can shift the day’s high before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, especially any thunderstorm timing or cloud cover changes that cap daytime heating.[3][11][13] The key dependency is not the headline “Day High & Low” summary but the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, so late revisions in station data still matter until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[3] With the event now being resolved in real time off a single airport station, the practical question is whether the afternoon peak clears the next temperature bracket before the record rolls over.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.