Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing's weather on 11 August 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Jiangbei International Airport Station. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at zero probability on Polygon, suggesting either extreme uncertainty amongst traders or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday spikes occur between official recording intervals.

Chongqing's August climate presents a narrow historical band. The city experiences monsoon-influenced heat during this period, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–37°C based on thirty-year normals. August 2023 recorded a peak of 40.9°C on the 15th, whilst August 2024 saw sustained temperatures above 35°C throughout the month. These patterns suggest the market's current zero-probability assessment across all ranges reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine forecasting consensus. Traders should examine comparable August dates from 2020–2025 to calibrate reasonable expectations for the specific range brackets available.

Catalysts shaping August 2026 conditions remain distant but worth monitoring. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength and timing influence Chongqing's precipitation and cloud cover, both of which suppress afternoon temperatures. Any significant weather pattern shifts—such as persistent high-pressure systems or tropical cyclone activity affecting the region—would alter the probability landscape substantially. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 11 August, giving traders roughly eighteen months to accumulate information on seasonal forecasts and atmospheric indices that historically correlate with Chongqing's summer extremes.

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.