Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience peak summer heat on 20 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or traders awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasting data as the date approaches. Settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary, a distinction that matters when automated station readings occasionally diverge from processed summaries.

Chongqing's August temperatures have historically clustered between 35°C and 39°C, with occasional excursions above 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city ranked among China's hottest regions during the 2022 summer drought, when sustained temperatures exceeded 40°C for multiple consecutive days. August 2023 saw similar patterns, though slightly moderated. These precedents establish the baseline range traders should expect; the current 0% probability across all bands reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence that temperatures will fall outside historical norms.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any advisories from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or atmospheric pressure systems affecting the Yangtze River basin. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer could shift precipitation patterns and cloud cover, both material to peak daily temperatures. Airport station readings themselves occasionally experience calibration adjustments or maintenance windows, though Weather Underground typically flags such disruptions in their historical records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.