Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

The contract for Chongqing’s highest temperature on 26 June 2026 currently trades at 0% YES on Polymarket, implying the market expects the peak to fall outside the defined range. This pricing reflects a near-certainty that the temperature will not breach the upper threshold, despite Chongqing’s reputation as one of China’s hottest cities, where summer highs routinely exceed 40°C.

Historically, late June in Chongqing marks the onset of the hot season, which lasts from 20 June to 9 September, with average daily highs above 85°F (29.4°C). In recent years, peaks have reached 43°C, with the record hitting 43.2°C on 23 August 2022[8]. Comparable cases from mid-June 2026 show temperatures pushing toward 31–32°C under subtropical high-pressure ridges[4], suggesting the current 0% probability may be overly conservative if the ridge intensifies.

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure system’s movement over the Sichuan Basin, as its strength directly influences peak temperatures. A recent analysis notes that similar ridge patterns in mid-June 2026 drove Chongqing’s peak toward 31–32°C[4]. Additionally, watch for official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration, which often issue heat advisories when temperatures approach 40°C. The settlement relies on Wunderground data from the Jiangbei International Airport Station, so any discrepancies in reporting could affect resolution. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will reflect these shifts as new data emerges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.