Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing this Dallas heat contract at **0% YES**, so the crowd is effectively saying the specified temperature range is not the live outcome in USDC terms on Polygon, with conditional tokens settled off the final Weather Underground reading. The real-world event is simple: what is the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 9 August 2026, using the Daily Observations table rather than the summary high-and-low box if the two differ.[1]

That 0% print looks aggressive when set against recent Dallas August norms. The National Weather Service’s climate data for Dallas/Fort Worth puts the normal maximum for 9 August at **97°F**, and recent August history in the region often lands in the upper 90s or low 100s rather than anything cooler.[6][7] Weather Underground’s Dallas history page for the same date is the actual settlement source for this market, so a trader needs to care less about broad forecast headlines than about the station-specific observation feed and the timing of the final datapoint publication.[1][8]

For practical catalysts, watch the progression of the day’s observations and whether any late update revises the station maximum before Weather Underground publishes the first datapoint for 10 August, because revisions inside that window still count.[1] Forecast products from the National Weather Service, local TV coverage, and airport-area readings can move the market intraday, but only as proxies for what the Love Field history table ultimately shows.[4][14] The main trading edge here is not directionally guessing summer heat in Dallas; it is tracking whether the observed peak ends up in the market’s declared range before settlement locks.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.