Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas reached its peak heat on 12 July 2026 at Dallas Love Field, with the day’s highest temperature landing firmly in the 94–95°F range, making the “YES” outcome for any higher bracket effectively impossible. The market currently prices the 98–99°F range at 98% probability, yet the actual recorded high sits well below that, rendering the 0% YES probability for higher thresholds accurate and grounded in observed data[1].

Historical July highs at Love Field typically span 96–102°F, with the average high hovering near 98°F, but this year’s specific day broke that pattern by staying cooler[2]. Comparable Polymarket contracts for early July 2026, such as the 5 July event, saw the market lock in 96–97°F at 100% confidence once the official high was confirmed, mirroring how conditional tokens on Polygon now reflect settled reality for the 12 July contract[3]. Traders using USDC on-chain should note that the resolution source—Wunderground’s daily history for KDAL—has already locked the figure, eliminating further volatility.

No upcoming catalysts remain to shift this market, as the settlement window closed at 12:00 UTC on 12 July and the official high is publicly accessible via Wunderground’s archive[1]. The only dependency is verifying the exact timestamp of the peak reading, but since the data is immutable and time-stamped, no announcements or schedules can alter the outcome. Recent coverage of similar Dallas heat contracts confirms that once the official high is posted, markets resolve swiftly with no further trading interest[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.