Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field Station will record a daily high temperature on 13 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and settled against Wunderground's historical database. The market currently prices all temperature ranges at 0% YES on Polygon, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual weather data exists. Traders are effectively pricing conditional tokens that will resolve only once the National Weather Service observation is logged and verified through Wunderground's archive system.

Historical July temperatures in Dallas cluster heavily in the 93–98°F range, with occasional spikes above 100°F during heat domes. The city's record high for any July day stands at 103°F, set in 1954. Between 2015 and 2024, July 13 specifically saw highs of 96°F, 94°F, 99°F, and 97°F across various years, establishing a narrow band where most outcomes concentrate. The 0% pricing suggests minimal liquidity or that traders view the market as insufficiently granular to justify position-taking this far ahead.

The relevant catalyst is the National Weather Service's seasonal forecast for summer 2026, typically issued in May. La Niña or El Niño conditions developing through early 2026 will shape whether July experiences above or below-normal heat. Additionally, any significant drought or wet pattern emerging in the preceding months could shift atmospheric conditions. Traders should monitor NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates and historical Wunderground data for Love Field specifically, as microclimatic variations between Dallas stations can affect settlement outcomes.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.