Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field recorded its peak heat for 16 July 2026 at 88–89°F, a figure that aligns with typical midsummer highs for the region rather than extreme outliers. Historical data from the last decade shows Dallas July maxima clustering between 85°F and 92°F, with 88°F appearing frequently as a median value [1]. The market’s current 0% probability for lower ranges reflects this consistency, while the frontrunner outcome of 88–89°F now sits at 100% implied probability, indicating the contract has effectively resolved [1].

On-chain mechanics on Polymarket, built on Polygon with USDC settlement, mean traders can now exit positions or hold conditional tokens to claim the resolved payout. The settlement window closed at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, and Wunderground’s official record for Dallas Love Field (KDAL) has been confirmed as the resolution source [1]. With the frontrunner outcome locked at 100%, liquidity has drained as arbitrageurs close out opposing positions, leaving minimal speculative opportunity.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily archive for any post-settlement corrections, though such revisions are rare once the 12:00 UTC cutoff passes. No further catalysts remain active; the temperature record is fixed, and the market’s 100% pricing on 88–89°F confirms the event’s finality [1]. For Polymarket users, this represents a closed loop where on-chain tokens now map directly to a verified real-world outcome, with no pending announcements or schedule dependencies to watch.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.