Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s 22 July heat in Polymarket terms is priced almost entirely into the **108-109°F** bucket, with the contract showing **100%** on that outcome and **0%** on **95°F or below**. Because this market settles against the **highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field** on the day, the trade is really about where the day’s peak lands on Wunderground’s hourly-history readout, not the lunchtime reading or the forecast headline. [1]

For context, that pricing implies the crowd sees the event as effectively resolved unless there is a late change in the station’s reported maximum. On Polymarket, users are holding **USDC** positions on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the practical question is whether the final Wunderground entry for KDAL prints inside the stated range when the settlement window closes. In a summer Dallas setup, the main analogue is not the average temperature but the daily high relative to recent heat patterns, which can shift quickly with cloud cover, thunderstorm outflow, or a cooler air mass. [1]

A trader’s watchlist is therefore meteorological and procedural: forecast updates from the National Weather Service, any shift in local thunderstorm timing, and the final Wunderground station record that will be used for resolution. The market description makes clear that the source is the Dallas Love Field station page, so the only meaningful catalyst is a change in the observed maximum before the day is locked in by the historical record. [1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.