Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the contract currently pricing the "YES" outcome at 0% probability. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy and sell conditional tokens, and the market’s frontrunner is the 98–99°F range at 41%, followed by 96–97°F at 37%. These odds shift in real time as liquidity flows through the on-chain order book, reflecting the collective view of participants rather than a static forecast.

Historical June data for Love Field shows daily highs typically ranging between 96°F and 100°F, with overnight lows between 77°F and 83°F[4]. Climate records for this period indicate average highs near 93°F, yet the record high for 26 June was 100°F in 2022, suggesting that extreme heat is plausible but not guaranteed[5]. The current 0% YES price appears inconsistent with this historical volatility, as similar markets in mid-June (e.g., 17 June) resolved to 90–91°F with 100% certainty, while earlier dates like 14 June saw 84–85°F outcomes[2][3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time data feed for KDALLA, which updates hourly and will be the primary source for Wunderground’s final resolution[6]. Any sudden shifts in humidity or dew point could signal a heat spike, and forecast models from AccuWeather currently project highs up to 100°F for late June[4]. While no official announcements are pending, the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 28 June 2026, so timely data ingestion is critical for accurate pricing[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.