Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Guangzhou temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, even though the market resolves on the highest reading at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, not on citywide averages. The contract is a standard Polymarket position settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the outcome represented through conditional tokens against Wunderground’s daily history page for 1 August 2026.

Guangzhou is a late-summer heat market: August norms are firmly in the low 30s Celsius, with typical monthly highs around **33°C** and average daily highs close to **32–33°C**. Comparable historical climate references show that Guangzhou can exceed **37–39°C** in extreme August heat, which matters because the market pays on the *day’s maximum* rather than the average or the morning reading. A 0% screen therefore reflects current order-book pricing rather than a genuine assertion that sub-heatwave outcomes are impossible.

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s weather evolution at the airport station: early-morning cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and any typhoon-linked rain bands can cap the daily maximum, while breaks in cloud cover can let temperatures spike quickly before precipitation arrives. August is also peak typhoon season in southern China, so watches and warnings around Guangdong can shift the temperature profile sharply; the relevant setup is less about long-range forecasts than about the intraday forecast updates and the recorded peak on Wunderground’s station history page.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.