Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026 is the real-world event determining this market’s outcome. Historically, July in Guangzhou sees daily highs averaging around 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96.8°F) [1][5]. Notably, the city’s all-time record for 1 July was 39.1°C, set on 1 July 2004, suggesting that extreme heat on this date is possible but not typical [3]. Given China’s recent trend of record-breaking summer temperatures, including the hottest July on record since 1961, the 0% YES probability implies the market expects temperatures to fall within the lower resolution bands, not the extreme upper range [2][6].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from Wunderground and national meteorological announcements, as sudden shifts in cloud cover, rainfall, or humidity could alter peak temperatures [4]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with average temperatures reaching 23.21°C, indicating a warming baseline that may influence 2026 conditions [6]. Additionally, seasonal rainfall patterns in Guangzhou—averaging 233mm in July—could suppress peak heat if heavy rain occurs early in the day [5]. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, will reflect these on-chain price movements as new data emerges, making real-time weather tracking essential for informed positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.