Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0%, meaning traders have assigned zero probability to any outcome resolving YES across all temperature ranges for Guangzhou's peak on 21 July 2026. The market settles against Wunderground's historical weather data for Baiyun International Airport Station, the city's primary meteorological reference point. This pricing reflects either extreme confidence in a specific range or minimal trading activity; given the settlement window closes mid-day on the event date itself, late liquidity often determines final odds on weather contracts.

Guangzhou's July temperatures cluster reliably between 32–37°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 38–39°C during heat waves. The city experiences peak summer intensity in mid-to-late July, driven by subtropical monsoon patterns and urban heat island effects. Comparable July days at Baiyun show that extreme outliers above 40°C are exceptionally rare; the last recorded instance of such temperatures in Guangzhou occurred during the 2013 heat wave. Current zero probability likely reflects traders' confidence that the market's temperature brackets exclude the most extreme scenarios, or that the crowd has simply not yet engaged with this specific settlement date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting Guangdong Province. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if active, could shift seasonal temperature expectations. The contract's tight settlement window—closing at midday on the resolution date—means real-time weather data from Baiyun becomes the decisive factor, leaving minimal room for forecast revision once trading concludes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.