Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" resolution sitting at 0%. This near-zero pricing reflects the market’s view that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite July being historically the hottest month in Guangzhou, with average maximums around 33°C and peaks reaching 39°C in recent years[6].

Historical data shows that daily highs in July typically hover near 33°C (91°F), rarely dropping below 29°C (85°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F), with the highest average peak occurring on 25 July[2]. In 2024, temperatures in southern China reached 40°C, and Guangzhou saw extreme heat during that period, suggesting that while 4 July is early in the month, it remains within the window of potential record highs[8]. The current 0% probability may therefore be an overreaction to the specific range rather than the underlying heat likelihood.

Traders should monitor official heatwave announcements from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source[5]. Recent reports confirm China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with temperatures averaging 23.21°C nationally, eclipsing 2017 levels[5]. On-chain mechanics on Polymarket, using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens, mean liquidity shifts can occur rapidly as new temperature data emerges, so watching daily Wunderground logs for the Baiyun station is critical before the settlement window closes on 2026-07-04T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.