Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows June in Guangzhou is extremely hot and humid, with a record high of 36.6°C and frequent thunderstorms averaging 280 mm of rainfall [1]. Recent years across East Asia have seen heatwaves with daily maximums over 35°C for at least three consecutive days, and the number of extreme hot days has more than doubled since the 1960s [2]. Despite this, the current crowd-implied probability for any specific high-temperature range sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders may be underestimating the likelihood of a heat spike or overreacting to the typical June thunderstorm pattern where temperatures hover near 31°C [3].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure system influencing the region, as its strength directly correlates with temperature spikes, and watch for typhoon announcements which could suppress heat [1]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s official daily maximum for the airport station, so any data gaps or delays in that feed will impact resolution [8]. Recent news from May 2026 noted Guangzhou experienced continuous sunny days with temperatures reaching 36.3°C, marking it the hottest May in history, which indicates a trend of rising extremes that could persist into June [5]. On Polymarket, this contract trades using USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, meaning liquidity and price movements reflect real-time sentiment shifts as weather forecasts update, not just abstract historical averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.