Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices all temperature ranges at 0%, reflecting minimal liquidity and no meaningful consensus on where the high will fall. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date. The contract cannot resolve until that official figure appears in the Observatory's Daily Extract records.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year to year, with historical daily maxima clustering between 31°C and 34°C. The Observatory's records from recent Augusts show that extremes—temperatures below 30°C or above 35°C—occur infrequently. The 11th holds no particular meteorological distinction; it falls within the peak summer season when the territory experiences warm, humid conditions driven by the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system. Traders should reference the Observatory's climatological summaries to calibrate expectations against the typical range rather than assuming outlier scenarios.

The primary catalyst affecting August 2026 temperatures will be tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific. Any system tracking towards or across the region in early August could suppress daytime highs through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst absence of such systems typically allows temperatures to reach the upper end of the seasonal norm. The Hong Kong Observatory issues seasonal outlooks and typhoon forecasts that traders can monitor as August approaches. Beyond weather patterns, the resolution mechanism itself introduces minimal risk—the Observatory's temperature measurements are standardised and publicly archived, eliminating ambiguity once data publication occurs.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.