Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract as a low-probability, narrow-band summer heat outcome, with 30°C leading the board at 53% and 31°C next at 35%, while the broader market has already traded about $97.4K in volume since launch. On-chain, that means traders are buying and selling conditional tokens with USDC on Polygon, so the quoted probabilities reflect live positioning rather than a fixed forecast.

For context, Hong Kong’s August climate usually sits in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, and the Observatory has recently posted extreme heat: 36.9°C was recorded in the city on 10 August, with 39.8°C at Sheung Shui the same day, according to reporting based on HKO data. That makes a 30–31°C settlement look like the crowd’s view of a damp, cloudier day rather than a full-on heat spike. The market’s 0% “YES” reading does not mean the event is impossible; it means no one is currently paying up for that specific outcome range.

The main catalysts to watch are the Hong Kong Observatory’s forecast updates, any thunderstorm or typhoon signal changes, and the final “Daily Extract” posting for 14 August, because the contract resolves from HKO’s “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once published. Polymarket also notes that later revisions to the recorded temperature will not count, so the first finalised extract matters most for resolution. Traders usually reprice fastest around morning forecast shifts, midday convective warnings, and any model changes that alter whether Hong Kong ends up closer to the 27–30°C band or pushes back towards 31–32°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.