Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES today, so the board is effectively treating a qualifying Hong Kong Observatory peak above the relevant range as an event with no live chance. The market settles on the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 21 August, published in the Daily Extract after the day closes, with values recorded to one decimal place; until that extract is finalised, the position remains open in USDC on Polygon as conditional tokens rather than a settled outcome.

For context, Hong Kong’s late-August climate often sits in the low 30s Celsius, but the realised daily maximum can be pulled down by cloud, showers, or a stronger easterly/northeasterly flow. That matters for range markets because a single tenth of a degree can decide which bucket pays, and the Observatory’s own records show a wide spread between ordinary summer highs and hotter extreme days.

The main trader watchpoints are the Observatory’s morning bulletins, any afternoon weather warnings, and the eventual Daily Extract release time, since the market cannot resolve before the 21 August data are published. With the 08:02 HKT update already showing 27°C at the Observatory and 28°C at Chek Lap Kok, the near-term read is for a warm but not necessarily extreme day, leaving cloud cover and shower timing as the key dependency for the final maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.