Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong Observatory temperature contract at **0% YES** on **USDC**-settled **Polygon** conditional tokens, which implies traders see little immediate value in paying up for a very high daily maximum. The market resolves on the Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” for 8 August 2026, so the relevant question is not whether Hong Kong is hot in August, but which reported temperature band ends up containing the final one-decimal reading once the Daily Extract is published.

Historical context suggests Hong Kong can post extreme August heat, but the upper tail is still uncommon. The Observatory recorded **36.3°C** on 8 August 2015, then its highest ever reading, while its August climatology shows a normal daily maximum around **31.7°C** for the month. August 2024 was described by the HKO as an “exceptionally hot August”, with a mean daily maximum of **32.3°C**, which is useful framing for how far above normal traders need to look before a top bracket becomes plausible.[1][5][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly readings, any hot-weather special announcements, and whether rain or thunderstorm activity caps the afternoon peak before the final max is locked in. The current HKO hourly bulletin already showed **29°C at 3 a.m.** in Hong Kong, which is warm starting material but not enough to infer the day’s ceiling.[6] The key dependency is the official final Daily Extract: until that is published, the contract cannot settle, even if the intraday readings look one way or another.[3][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.