Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius, measured to one decimal place. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, reflecting the market's nascent state roughly eighteen months before settlement. The contract will resolve once the Observatory publishes its "Absolute Daily Max" figure in the Daily Extract dataset, making this a straightforward factual settlement dependent on a single official measurement rather than interpretation or aggregation.

Hong Kong's July temperatures cluster reliably between 32°C and 35°C for daily highs, with extremes rarely exceeding 36°C. The Observatory's historical records show that mid-July typically sits within the peak summer monsoon season, when afternoon highs frequently reach the low-to-mid 33°C range. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific range will contain the actual reading, not scepticism about whether a temperature will be recorded. Traders should note that Hong Kong's urban heat island effect and proximity to the South China Sea create measurable variability; typhoon activity in early July could suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate them.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily climate data with a standard lag of several days following observation. Traders monitoring this contract should track seasonal weather patterns and any tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency or China's meteorological services in early July 2026, as these directly influence whether conditions favour cooler or warmer extremes. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 July, though actual data publication typically occurs days later, creating a resolution delay common to weather markets on Polygon.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.