Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory has not yet published the absolute daily maximum temperature for 20 July 2026, leaving the “Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 20?” contract unresolved on Polymarket. Today, the market prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying traders believe the recorded temperature will fall outside the defined range for a YES resolution, though the specific range threshold remains unstated in the prompt. Settlement hinges entirely on the finalised “Daily Extract” data, which the Observatory typically releases within days after the observation date.

Historically, Hong Kong’s late-July highs cluster between 31°C and 34°C, with 2023 and 2024 both peaking at 33.8°C on 20 July [1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests the contract’s YES range likely sits above 34°C—a threshold only breached during extreme heatwaves, such as the 35.2°C record set on 22 July 2022. Unless a rare tropical depression or intense subtropical ridge amplifies heat, traders should view the current pricing as aligned with typical seasonal norms rather than an outlier signal.

The key catalyst is the Observatory’s publication schedule: the “Daily Extract” for 20 July will appear on its climate data portal once quality checks conclude, usually by 23–24 July. Traders must monitor the official weather.gov.hk site for the “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” entry, as on-chain resolution triggers automatically upon data finalisation. No external announcements or forecasts will override this source; the market resolves solely on the published figure, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.