Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this contract tracks is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Polymarket currently prices the 31°C range at 59% probability, with 30°C trailing at 32%, while the 0% YES probability for the "highest" outcome reflects a misunderstanding of the conditional token structure rather than the weather itself[1]. Traders on Polygon using USDC are trading shares that resolve to the specific temperature bracket once the "Absolute Daily Max" is finalized in the Daily Extract[1]. The conditional tokens will only settle once the Observatory confirms the final "Absolute Daily Max" to one decimal place, making the timing of this data release the critical dependency for share settlement[1].

Historical data frames how to read this current probability: July in Hong Kong typically sees highs around 31°C, with the average warmest day reaching 30.1°C and the month warming up to 31.4°C by late July[2][4]. Recent records show extreme volatility, with Sheung Shui hitting 39°C on a record-breaking July day, proving that 31°C is a plausible but not guaranteed outcome[1]. The forecast for the next days in Hong Kong predicts temperatures around 29°C, close to the historical average, though temperatures tend to noticeably warm up as the month progresses[2].

Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory's "Daily Extract" publication schedule, as the market cannot resolve until data for 6 July is finalized and published[1]. The UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon will trigger a two-hour challenge window after a proposer submits the outcome, with USDC payouts settling automatically once the result is final[1]. No recent news source has altered the baseline forecast, but the timing of the Observatory's data release remains the primary catalyst for share settlement[1]. Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations, usually under 30 seconds, ensuring rapid liquidity for position adjustments[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.