Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Today, Polymarket prices this contract with a 0% implied probability for the "YES" outcome, suggesting the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded. This stark pricing contrasts with historical June data, where daily highs typically range between 30°C and 33°C, with recent extreme heat warnings pushing temperatures to 34.6°C in the afternoon [6]. Long-term averages for June show maximums around 30°C, yet the seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures for Hong Kong, increasing the likelihood of record-breaking heat [2][9].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" publications, which finalise the "Absolute Daily Max" data once the settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 25 June 2026 [5]. The resolution source is strictly the official figure from this extract, available on the Observatory’s climate portal, and the market cannot settle until this data is published [4]. Recent announcements highlight a very high UV index forecast for 25 June, with maximum UV levels reaching 10, indicating intense solar radiation that often correlates with peak temperatures [8]. On-chain mechanics involve USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens execute payouts automatically once the official temperature is confirmed, ensuring transparent settlement without intermediary delay.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.