Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this Houston temperature contract at **0% YES** today, which leaves the market implying an almost complete expectation that the highest reading at William P. Hobby Airport on 9 August 2026 will land outside the contract’s winning range. The market settles in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the practical question for users is not whether Houston gets hot, but whether the Weather Underground *Daily Observations* table prints a top value inside the specified band by the resolution cut-off.

For context, August in Houston is normally a high-heat month, with forecast and climate references clustering around the low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit for daytime highs and warm overnight lows. Weather Underground’s own resolution logic matters more than headline forecast highs: for the comparable 10 August Robinhood contract, the venue explicitly says settlement uses the final daily temperature values in Weather Underground’s summary data table after the next day’s first observation appears, which underlines that late-day observation timing can matter more than the public “high” graphic.[18] NWS climate normals for Houston Hobby list a normal maximum of 94°F for the relevant August date, with a record maximum of 105°F, so a very hot day is not rare even if the market currently discounts the exact band outcome.[11]

Traders should watch for the afternoon evolution of the Houston/Galveston forecast, especially any thunderstorm chance, cloud cover, or marine influence that could cap the maximum before the station’s late-day peak. NWS currently shows Houston Hobby under mostly cloudy conditions with a 92°F high and a late update timestamp, while AccuWeather and other forecast sources are broadly similar in keeping highs around the low 90s.[7][8][1] Because the contract resolves from the station’s observed table rather than a forecast, the main dependency is whether the day’s final observation sequence on Weather Underground captures a peak inside the target range before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.