Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston just endured its warmest July day in nearly 150 years, with College Station hitting 111°F on Sunday, 10 July, while the greater area faced extreme heat that pushed heat indices to 106[1]. This historical extremity frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the "Highest temperature in Houston on July 10" market, suggesting traders view the specific range offered as implausible despite the record-breaking context. Historical data shows July 10, 2022, reached 104°F at Houston, and average July highs typically sit between 92°F and 95°F, rarely exceeding 100°F[3][5]. The recent surge to 111°F in nearby College Station indicates a broader heatwave, yet the market pricing implies the specific contractual range does not align with the Hobby Airport station's likely output.

Traders monitoring this on-chain contract on Polygon, settled in USDC via conditional tokens, should watch the immediate post-event data release from Wunderground for the William P. Hobby Airport Station (KHOU) to confirm the official resolution temperature[1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 10 July 2026, meaning the final temperature is already recorded and the 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market's defined ranges and the actual recorded high, which forecasters predicted near 97°F with heavy rain potential ramping up that weekend[9]. With Houston experiencing its second-warmest July on record overall, averaging 87.8°F, the catalyst for any price movement would be a discrepancy between the crowd's range assumption and the official Wunderground reading, which remains the definitive resolution source[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.