Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges measured in degrees Celsius. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% on Polygon, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or a technical settlement issue, as historical August temperatures in Kuala Lumpur consistently exceed 30°C. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the Day High & Low summary section—a distinction that matters when station data contains multiple readings throughout the day.

Kuala Lumpur's August climate is remarkably consistent. Over the past decade, daily highs have ranged between 31–34°C, with occasional peaks near 35°C during particularly dry spells. The city experiences monsoon conditions during this period, which can suppress temperatures slightly but rarely produces readings below 30°C. Comparable August dates show negligible year-on-year variation, making extreme outliers—either unusually cool or hot—statistically improbable. The 0% probability across all brackets suggests the market has not yet attracted meaningful trading activity rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether measurable heat will occur.

Traders should monitor Malaysia's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 August, which occurs during Kuala Lumpur's early afternoon—typically the warmest period. Any disruption to airport weather station operations would trigger reliance on Weather Underground's data quality, making the specific source documentation critical for dispute resolution. Current USDC liquidity on Polygon remains thin, indicating this contract has not yet attracted significant trader interest.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.