Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on June 25?

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Market context

On 25 June 2026, London City Airport is expected to record a daytime maximum near 29°C, with current on-chain pricing on Polymarket assigning a 99% probability to that outcome, while the "YES" side for any higher range sits at 0%. This market resolves via conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settling in USDC once Wunderground publishes the first data point for the day, locking the final temperature range to the London City Airport Station record.

Historical context frames this probability: London City Airport’s warm season averages highs above 67°F (29.4°C), and recent Met Office forecasts for this date during the ongoing UK heatwave suggest a peak near 35°C, yet today’s actual observations show a high of 29°C with 22°C lows, wind at 22 km/h, and 88% humidity [3][4]. The 99% frontrunner for 29°C reflects the station’s typical ceiling under current conditions, not the broader city’s potential 35°C spike, which may not reach the airport due to local microclimates and wind patterns [1].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s 7-day forecast updates for London City Airport, as any sudden shift in pressure or wind direction could alter the airport’s maximum temperature [8]. The key dependency is the Wunderground data publication at 12:00 UTC on 25 June, which will confirm the final range; recent news from the BBC notes London may hit 30°C by the bank holiday, but this airport-specific record remains anchored to 29°C under current conditions [9]. No announcements are expected to override the on-chain resolution mechanics, which rely solely on the published temperature data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.