Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 28 June 2026 is the real-world event this contract resolves to, measured in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket today, the market prices the "YES" outcome—indicating the temperature will exceed a specific threshold—at 0.1%, with USDC liquidity sitting on the Polygon network using conditional tokens. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders see virtually no chance of the temperature breaching the threshold, despite the warm season officially running from mid-June to early September at this location.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability against comparable June cases. The warm season at London City Airport typically sees average daily highs above 67°F, yet the hottest day of 2026 so far was recorded at Kew Gardens, southwest London, at 26.6°C on a recent date, according to the Met Office [7]. Current observations at London City Airport show temperatures hovering around 25°C with high humidity and falling pressure, while the National Weather Service chart confirms a range from 24 June to 28 June without extreme spikes [3]. This stability supports the market's view that a record-breaking surge is unlikely.

Traders should watch for sudden weather announcements or heatwave schedules that could alter the forecast. The Met Office has issued warnings for potential record-breaking temperatures up to 40°C across the UK, with thunderstorms and torrential downpours sweeping London after days of extreme heat [8][10]. Any shift in the southerly wind pattern or a rapid drop in pressure could trigger a temperature spike, but the current forecast of sunny intervals and light winds suggests conditions will remain steady [2]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will publish the first data point for 28 June to confirm the final value, closing the settlement window at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.