Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles will experience some temperature reading on 18 August 2026, and this market captures which range that peak will fall into. The settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Los Angeles International Airport Station—the granular hourly data rather than the summary high-low figures. Current market pricing shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, indicating either a technical listing state or genuine uncertainty about which range will resolve in-the-money when the settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date.

Historical August temperatures at LAX cluster tightly. The station's records show August highs typically range between 75–85°F, with extreme outliers rare. The all-time August maximum at LAX stands at 97°F (recorded in 1961), though readings above 90°F occur in roughly one-in-five Augusts. This historical distribution suggests the market's current 0% reading across all brackets reflects either incomplete liquidity or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket have shown similar pricing anomalies during early listing phases before meaningful volume accumulates.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the National Weather Service's extended forecasts for Southern California as mid-August 2026 approaches. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and any developing high-pressure systems over the Southwest will be primary drivers of whether LAX experiences a typical summer day or an anomalous heat event. The specificity of using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than official NWS data—introduces a minor dependency on that platform's data quality and reporting consistency on settlement day.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 18? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.