Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles is expected to face scorching July heat on 12 July 2026, with the settlement tied to the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract for any temperature outcome at 0%, reflecting a crowd consensus that the specific range queried is virtually impossible given current climatic expectations. Traders holding USDC on the Polygon network see this as a near-certain NO outcome, driven by conditional token mechanics that penalise misaligned positions against historical norms.

Historically, mid-July highs at KLAX average 85°F, rarely exceeding 92°F even during intense heatwaves, though recent events have shattered records with Valley temperatures climbing above 110°F [2]. While a major heat wave recently slammed Southern California with temperatures soaring 25 degrees above normal [7], the coastal airport station typically moderates extremes compared to inland valleys. The 0% probability suggests the market believes the specific range in question falls well outside even these outlier scenarios, aligning with long-term averages where daytime maximums hover near 29°C (84°F) [5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat advisory schedules and Wunderground’s real-time hourly updates for KLAX, as the resolution source depends strictly on the highest recorded temperature for all times on that day [3]. Recent coverage from NBC Los Angeles highlights active cooling centres and energy usage warnings during peak afternoon hours, indicating authorities are already managing extreme heat risks [2]. Any sudden shift in the heatwave’s trajectory, particularly if it pushes coastal temperatures beyond 95°F, would be the primary catalyst to reassess the current pricing, though current forecasts suggest daily highs ranging only from 78°F to 92°F for July 2026 [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.