Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles recorded its highest temperature on 20 July 2026 at the Los Angeles International Airport Station, with the market now pricing the outcome as settled. On Polymarket, this contract trades on Polygon using USDC, where conditional tokens reflect the crowd’s view that the temperature fell within the 80–81°F range, assigning it a 100% probability, while the “71°F or below” option sits at 0% [1]. The current 0% YES probability for lower ranges aligns with the actual peak, confirming the market’s accuracy in capturing the day’s heat.

Historically, mid-July in Los Angeles often sees highs between 75°F and 85°F, with 2024 and 2025 both recording peaks near 82°F at KLAX. The 2026 result of 80–81°F fits this pattern, making the 0% probability for cooler ranges a rational reflection of seasonal norms rather than an outlier bet [2]. Traders reading the current pricing should note that the market has already resolved, so the 0% figure is not a forecast but a post-event confirmation.

No further catalysts apply, as the settlement window closed on 2026-07-20T12:00:00Z and Wunderground’s official record is final. The resolution source is the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day at KLAX, accessible via the Wunderground history page [1]. With the outcome confirmed, on-chain positions will settle automatically, and USDC payouts will be distributed to holders of the winning conditional tokens on Polygon.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.