Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak heat expected at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance that the temperature will exceed the lowest bracket. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, where the crowd has overwhelmingly rejected the lowest temperature range, implying confidence in significantly warmer conditions. The on-chain mechanics lock liquidity until the settlement window closes on 12:00:00 UTC on 9 July 2026, with resolution sourced directly from Wunderground’s daily high for KLAX.

Historical data frames this probability starkly: the all-time high for Los Angeles on 9 July is 96°F, recorded decades ago, while typical July highs at KLAX average 85°F, with forecasts for July 2026 showing daily highs between 79°F and 90°F[1][4]. Recent heatwaves in California, including the scorching conditions on 8 July 2026, saw inland temperatures reach 90–105°F, reinforcing that a sub-76°F day is statistically anomalous for mid-July in this region[3][5]. The 0% YES probability aligns with these records, as even the coolest forecasted days rarely dip below 79°F.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s point forecasts for KLAX and any official heat advisories issued by L.A. County, as these dictate short-term temperature swings[5]. A recent heat advisory from 5 July 2026 warned of interior temperatures peaking at 90–105°F, suggesting that atmospheric patterns are already priming for extreme warmth[5]. Dependencies include the marine layer’s strength; a weak morning marine layer, as seen in recent days, typically allows inland heat to surge, while a strong one could suppress highs temporarily[8]. No major announcements are scheduled, but real-time Wunderground updates will be the definitive catalyst for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.